According to a new market forecast by telecoms and networks analyst Dell’Oro Group, coherent DWDM revenue is forecast to reach US$16 billion by 2023. This revenue growth will be driven by 200+ Gbps wavelength shipments, it says.
“The 100 Gbps growth cycle is behind us,” said Jimmy Yu, Vice President at Dell’Oro (pictured). “This doesn’t mean that coherent 100 Gbps wavelengths are no longer needed. It is just that with new 60 Gbaud and soon to be released 90 Gbaud based line cards, the reach of 200 Gbps and 400 Gbps coherent signals can reach much further and help service providers lower their cost-per-bit.”
“We consider these to be excellent reasons to choose 200+ Gbps wavelengths. So, we are predicting 100 Gbps wavelength shipments to decline during the next five years while 200+ Gbps wavelength shipments grow at a 50 percent compounded annual growth rate (CAGR),” continued Yu.
The total WDM market comprising metro and long-haul systems is forecast to grow at a 5% CAGR; WDM Metro will slightly outpace DWDM Long Haul growth during the forecast period. Furthermore, disaggregated WDM systems are projected to exceed US$3 billion in revenue by 2023 and 200 Gbps wavelengths are forecast to comprise the highest share of shipments in three years. Finally, 800 Gbps wavelength shipments are projected to begin ramping in 2020.
The Dell’Oro Group Optical Transport Five-Year Forecast Report offers a complete overview of the Optical Transport industry with tables covering manufacturers’ revenue, average selling prices, unit shipments, Tributary/Line or Wavelength shipments (by speed, up to 600 Gbps).
The report tracks DWDM long haul terrestrial, WDM metro, multiservice multiplexers, and optical switch equipment. Dell’Oro Group is a market research firm that specializes in strategic competitive analysis in the telecommunications, networks, and data centre IT markets. The firm provides in-depth quantitative data and qualitative analysis to facilitate critical, fact-based business decisions.
For more information, visit www.delloro.com